Bumpy road ahead
Considering extensive lockdowns and stock shortages, August was a reasonable month nationally for new-car sales with 81,199 vehicles sold in August, and 732,828 vehicles sold year to date (YTD).
YTD sales are 27.2 percent above last year, but only 1.3 percent above 2019 levels.
All vehicle segments rose, with light commercials continuing to be the fastest growing segment, up 71.2 percent for the month.
Victoria had a strong month with sales growing by 153.6 percent, but YTD Victorian sales are still down by 7.6 percent over 2019 levels.
Australia has experienced a strong set of economic conditions to date, which has helped lift the new vehicle market since its precarious state last year.
We have seen annual house price growth to date of 17.5 percent, the strongest growth in almost 20 years.
The share market index has risen 29 percent over the year.
We’ve had unprecedented policy stimulus and record low interest rates.
GDP grew 0.7 percent in the June Quarter (after rising by 1.9 percent in the March Quarter).
Personal finance for road vehicles rose 2.9 percent in July to $1.177 billion. Vehicle loans had fallen to only $0.63 billion last year, so this is a good recovery, but we used to borrow a lot more.
Forecasters signal a four percent contraction in the economy for the September Quarter because of lockdowns, before a rebound in the December Quarter. This may mean a volatile few months for the new-car market but I am still predicting over 1 million vehicle sales this year.
Share your thoughts! E: ceo@vacc.com.au. As featured in the Herald Sun 10 September 2021.